The skies over New Jersey have been buzzing with intrigue for weeks, as reports of unidentified drones flood in from residents, pilots, and law enforcement. These nighttime sightings—clusters of bright lights moving in formation—have sparked widespread speculation. Are they hobbyist quadcopters? Commercial UAVs? Or something more advanced? A key question dominating discussions is their size. From glowing orbs the size of basketballs to larger craft rivaling small cars, eyewitness accounts vary wildly. This article dives into the evidence, tech analysis, and likely candidates to estimate just how big these mysterious drones really are.
The Sightings: Reports from the Ground and Air
New Jersey’s drone flap began in mid-November 2024, with sightings concentrated around key areas like Picatinny Arsenal and coastal towns near New York City. Witnesses describe groups of 5 to 50 lights hovering silently at altitudes between 400 and 1,000 feet—well within regulated airspace. The FAA has logged over 100 reports, confirming no immediate threats but urging vigilance.
Eyewitness Descriptions of Size and Shape
Most accounts paint the drones as dark silhouettes framed by LED lights, making direct size gauging tricky. One Morris County resident told local news: “They looked about the size of a DJI Mavic 3—maybe 2 feet across, with four lights in a quad pattern.” Others claim larger profiles: a pilot near Trump National Golf Club in Bedminster estimated wingspans up to 10 feet, akin to enterprise models. Thermal imaging from police helicopters shows heat signatures consistent with electric propulsion, ruling out jet-like aircraft.
Social media videos amplify the mystery. A viral clip from Raritan River shows lights pulsing in sync, suggesting FPV systems for coordinated flight. No crashes or debris have been recovered, but ground teams report faint humming, pointing to brushless motors typical of mid-sized drones.
Official Responses and Data
The FAA, alongside the DHS and FBI, deployed detection tech like Robin Radar systems. Preliminary data indicates objects 2-6 feet in diameter, flying at 20-100 mph with no transponders. This aligns with Part 107 commercial ops but exceeds hobbyist limits in numbers and duration—some swarms persist for hours.
Estimating Drone Sizes: Science Meets Speculation
Sizing these drones requires blending witness reports, video analysis, and known benchmarks. Without radar-confirmed dimensions, experts turn to comparative methods.
Visual and Photographic Analysis
Frame-by-frame breakdowns of videos reveal scale clues. In one YouTube clip from Clinton, lights span about 1.5 meters apart—matching DJI Mini 4 Pro quadcopters (under 249g, ~10-inch props). However, formation stability implies larger frames for wind resistance. Using known landmarks: a drone hovering near a 20-foot power pole appeared one-third its height, suggesting 6-7 feet diagonally.
Photogrammetry tools, like those in Pix4D, estimate volumes from light arrays. Assuming standard LED spacing (6-12 inches per arm), most fit the 3-5 foot class—think Autel Evo Lite territory.
Comparative Benchmarks from Drone Tech
Cross-referencing with popular models:
- Micro/Small Drones (<2 feet): Ideal for stealth. BetaFPV Pavo Pico or similar micro drones could explain single lights, but swarms demand better range.
- Mid-Size (2-6 feet): Prime suspects. DJI Air 3 (diagonal ~30 inches) offers 46-minute flights via high-capacity LiPo batteries.
- Large (>6 feet): Rarer, like Freefly Alta X for cinematography, with payloads for gimbal cameras.
Obstacle avoidance sensors like APAS 5.0 enable tight formations, supporting mid-sized builds.
Likely Drone Candidates and Their Tech
Narrowing possibilities, these sightings scream advanced consumer or prosumer gear, not sci-fi craft.
Consumer and Hobby Drones
Hobbyists favor racing drones like iFlight Nazgul5, 5-inch frames with FPV cameras for night ops. Equipped with GPS modules and telemetry radios, they hit 80 mph. A fleet of 20 could mimic swarms using open-source Betaflight for swarm logic.
GoPro Hero12 mounts add 4K imaging, explaining any surveillance angle.
Commercial and Enterprise UAVs
More likely culprits: DJI Matrice 300 RTK, a 3.5-foot beast with RTK GPS for cm-level precision and 55-minute endurance. Used in mapping and remote sensing, it features thermal cameras for low-vis flights.
Skydio 2+ excels in AI follow mode and autonomy, dodging regulations via BVLOS waivers.
Military or Experimental Tech?
Though downplayed, RQ-11 Raven-style tactical UAVs (4-foot wingspan) fit military bases nearby. Wing Loong drones are too large, but black-ops Group 3 UAS (20-55 lbs) with stabilization systems could test stealth coatings.
Tech Innovations Powering These Flights
Regardless of operator, the tech shines: navigation systems blend IMU sensors and optical flow for GPS-denied ops. Autonomous flight via PX4 enables leader-follower swarms.
Accessories like Tattu batteries and propeller guards extend missions. For aerial filmmaking, optical zoom lenses on gimbals capture cinematic paths without lights drawing attention.
Conclusion: Demystifying the Skies
The drones over New Jersey likely measure 2-6 feet, dominated by mid-sized quadcopters like DJI’s enterprise line, leveraging flight controllers and AI for spectacle. No evidence of illegality yet—perhaps FAA-approved testing or rogue enthusiasts pushing apps like Litchi. As counter-drone tech ramps up, answers will emerge. For now, the skies remind us: drone tech evolves fast, blurring lines between hobby and high-stakes ops.